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Market Analysis: Asia - Jun 05, 2013

The dollar traded with a softer bias in N.Y. on Wednesday following a softer ADP employment report. Headline non-manufacturing ISM beat expectations, though there too, the employment component was soft, which won't bode well for Friday's official May jobs report. EUR-USD traded over 1.3110 following the jobs data, though while it pulled back to 1.3060 in subsequent dealings, the euro's tone remained firm. This may have partly been due to lessened prospects for ECB rate moves at Thursday's announcement, on top of the shaky U.S. employment outlook. On deck Thursday will be weekly jobless claims, which will also highlight Friday's report.

[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD fell back to opening levels, doing a round trip after the morning's data releases. Choppy prices action was the rule, with liquidity said to be lacking. The pairing pulled back to 1.3062 lows after peaking at 1.3116, and bids are now seen from 1.3040. The pairing made its way back over 1.3100 in afternoon trade, as pre-ECB short covering set in, along with weight on the dollar from sharply lower equities.

[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY experienced limited upside, only managing a rally high around 99.70 following the brief dip into 99.10. Since it broke below 100.00 on Monday the tone has been shaky and there was also some disappointment that today's growth plan outlined by PM Abe did not include more details on changes to the national pension fund, which would enable it to invest more in stocks and overseas assets. These measures were outlined in a draft report, but the government is seeking expert advice before proceeding. The more cautious USD-JPY tone has encouraged short dated interest between 100.00 and 99.00 in the last 24 hours, ranging from two-day to one-week expiries. Earlier this week, three-week 97.30 also dealt as corporate Japan hedges against more sustained yen gains.

[GBP, USD]
Cable added to early gains after U.S. ADP data weighed on the dollar. The release contributed to around 50 pips on the Cable topside, but it stalled out just over 1.5400 amid talk of Middle Eastern account offers. The same name was actively restricting the topside from 1.5370 during the European morning upturn, which suggested option barriers were being defended, and later extinguished. The June two-day BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting started today and is widely expected to conclude by leaving the QE total at GBP 375 bln and the repo rate at 0.5%. Without change there will most likely not be either statement or press conference, so we'd have to wait until the publications of the minutes on Jun-19 for the vote split and insight.

[USD, CHF]
CHF was supported as markets continued to trade defensively ahead of tomorrow's ECB policy meet and Friday's NFP data. EUR-CHF moved into the 1.2355 region after the earlier ADP release encouraged a round of USD-CHF selling. However, after it dipped into 0.9425 it recovered to 0.9470, where it started the N.Y. session. Like EUR-CHF, the dollar pairing is trending close to the bottom end of the weekly range as equity markets struggle amid persistent doubts over the Fed policy outlook. EUR-CHF may move back towards 1.2330, but ahead of 1.2300 there are decent orders ahead of good chart support. USD-CHF is skewed to a potential run through 0.9400, which is protecting long-term moving averages.

[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD topped out over 1.0365 overnight, and drifted back under 1.0340 in light early trade. Aside from Canadian building permit data at 8:30 EDT, the calendar was empty, and focus remained on U.S. ADP readings, along with non-manufacturing ISM releases from south of the border. The CAD suffered some on the softer jobs data, though overall, a recipe for range trade was in effect, with USD-CAD was supported by noted bids from 1.0320, with short covering stepping in under 1.0330. The pairing moved back over 1.0375, though offers from 1.0380 capped things off.